The importance of middle-power states
December 21, 2020by Orlando Oxales originally published in The Manila Standard
“The government must take a pro-active posture in alliance with its formidable network of like-minded states.”
China was again criticized by the US military last week for snubbing the senior-level meetings connected to the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement on maritime safety. This is yet another confrontational rhetoric between the US and China in the geopolitical climate in our region, an escalating threat on top of the health and economic crisis of the global pandemic.
The Department of Foreign Affairs for its part issued a statement recently urging the members of the ASEAN Maritime Forum and to work towards fulfilling their obligations under the 1982 UNCLOS for the peace, stability, and prosperity of our region and assured fellow ASEAN members that the Philippines remains committed to the completion of a Code of Conduct in the West Philippine Sea and South China Sea.
The evolving dynamics in the South China Sea and crucial issues between the US, China, and the Philippines were the focus of regional policy experts during the 4th session of the online Pilipinas Conference on “A New Indo-Pacific: The Strategic Role of Middle Powers” held late November organized by the Stratbase Albert del Rosario Institute in partnership with Bower Group Asia and the Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines.
Department of National Defense (DND) Secretary Delfin Lorenzana was surprisingly forthright in his keynote speech, pointing out that tensions in the South China Sea would continue to worsen as China, the US and other countries throw allegations of provocation and more confrontational incidents occur potentially destabilizing the region and that conflicting interests of ASEAN nations will further confound and prolong resolution of issues.
“The 10 ASEAN nations could not even agree to a common communique several years ago. Complicating the matter is China’s preference for bilateral dialogue as against multilateral one,” Lorenzana said.
Mr. Ernest Bower, president and CEO of Bower Group Asia, for his part, expects continuity and more careful diplomacy with the new administration of US President-Elect Joe Biden and rebuilding alliances with ASEAN partners such as the Philippines, Australia, Japan, Thailand, and Korea will be top priority.
He said, “I think that the US—China relationship will remain very confrontational rhetoric, and characterized by competition, but that rhetoric will be lowered. I expect the Biden administration to be less aggressive on Taiwan, more forward-leaning on Hong Kong, Uighurs, Zhenjiang, continuity on tough policy in the South China Sea with much more emphasis on ASEAN, and a return to a much higher level of engagement with treaty allies.”
“If the Philippines is willing, now or after 2022, Biden and the US will look for chances to expand investment in security cooperation, economic partnership, and deepening our strong ties across sectors,” Bower said.
Prof. Dindo Manhit, President of Stratbase ADRi said, “China’s emergence as a political and economic power has come with growing ambitions, including the attempt to position itself as a global leader and shape the international order. However, its rise is far from “peaceful,” with its questionable economic initiatives and aggression in the West Philippine Sea. Given the critical juncture that China is in today, its foreign policy direction will dictate the country’s global standing in the coming years.”
He stated that, “Middle-power countries should realize that even if the US presence in the Indo-Pacific is crucial to ensure a rules-based order, the region’s future should not be dictated by or charted under a unipolar hegemony. As the region’s political landscape continues to evolve, there is a crucial need for middle powers to recognize their role and the importance of creating a network of like-minded states to protect and maintain an open and multipolar Indo-Pacific region.”
“The Indo-Pacific states have an equal, if not greater, impact on how the regional order will be shaped because of their significant political, economic, military, and socio-cultural power,” Manhit said.
Security has gone beyond conventional external defense using weapons deployed in a digital battlefield of disinformation, data intrusion and even the real threat of sabotaging digital infrastructures wreaking havoc on the already battered industries and financial systems. This will be disastrous to all economies especially now that all are digitizing because of the pandemic.
It is clear from the experts of this forum that the South China Sea theater will be increasingly complicated and will be a protracted geopolitical problem that has now radiated its political and economic repercussions beyond the ASEAN region. The Philippines must step up its actions by leveraging its stature as the State that successfully won the arbitral court ruling that legally nullified Beijing’s baseless nine-dash line claim to rationalize its expansionist ambitions.
The government must take a pro-active posture in alliance with its formidable network of like-minded states to foster a rules-based maritime decorum and shape a regional order of cooperation and a prosperity that will reverse the economic suffering of this pandemic.